Modest
the Acemoglu view +0.5percentage points of growth a year at most, phased in to 2035AI is a normal productivity tool. Each country gains a few per cent of GDP once, and growth then returns to trend. This is still the mainstream economic view.
Current research · AI and economic growth
AGI Growth Atlas
If AI becomes able to do any job done at a computer, which countries could grow fastest, and which could fall behind? The atlas models 157 countries to 2060 under three scenarios.
Figure 1
Modelled growth per year once AGI arrives
Gradual scenario, AGI around 2040
Below 3%3–6%6–9%9–12%12–15%15–20%20% or more Not in the atlas
All 157 countries as a table
| Country | Region | Trend, 2016–25 | Modest | Gradual | Fast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | Europe | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% |
| Algeria | MENA | 2.2% | 2.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% |
| Angola | Sub-Saharan Africa | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| Argentina | Latin America | 0.4% | 0.7% | 7.6% | 10.6% |
| Armenia | Eurasia | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% |
| Australia | Oceania | 2.3% | 2.7% | 12.5% | 21.4% |
| Austria | Europe | 1.2% | 1.5% | 9.8% | 16.7% |
| Azerbaijan | Eurasia | 1.4% | 1.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% |
| Bahamas | Caribbean | 2.1% | 2.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% |
| Bahrain | MENA | 2.8% | 3.0% | 7.9% | 11.9% |
| Bangladesh | South Asia | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% |
| Barbados | Caribbean | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% |
| Belgium | Europe | 1.6% | 1.9% | 10.0% | 17.4% |
| Belize | Latin America | 2.4% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% |
| Benin | Sub-Saharan Africa | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% |
| Bolivia | Latin America | 1.4% | 1.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | Europe | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% |
| Botswana | Sub-Saharan Africa | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% |
| Brazil | Latin America | 1.5% | 1.8% | 9.1% | 14.8% |
| Brunei | Southeast Asia | 0.7% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% |
| Bulgaria | Europe | 2.9% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 9.4% |
| Burkina Faso | Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% |
| Burundi | Sub-Saharan Africa | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% |
| Cabo Verde | Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.0% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Cambodia | Southeast Asia | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% |
| Cameroon | Sub-Saharan Africa | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% |
| Canada | North America | 2.0% | 2.5% | 14.2% | 24.4% |
| Chad | Sub-Saharan Africa | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Chile | Latin America | 2.1% | 2.5% | 10.9% | 16.3% |
| China | East Asia | 5.6% | 6.0% | 13.9% | 25.6% |
| Colombia | Latin America | 2.5% | 2.8% | 9.2% | 12.8% |
| Costa Rica | Latin America | 3.7% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% |
| Côte d'Ivoire | Sub-Saharan Africa | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% |
| Croatia | Europe | 3.5% | 3.7% | 7.8% | 11.3% |
| Cyprus | Europe | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% |
| Czech Republic | Europe | 2.0% | 2.3% | 8.5% | 13.9% |
| Denmark | Europe | 2.2% | 2.6% | 10.5% | 17.4% |
| Djibouti | Sub-Saharan Africa | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% |
| Dominican Republic | Latin America | 4.3% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 11.1% |
| DR Congo | Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% |
| Ecuador | Latin America | 1.6% | 1.9% | 8.0% | 9.5% |
| Egypt | MENA | 4.3% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% |
| El Salvador | Latin America | 2.6% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% |
| Equatorial Guinea | Sub-Saharan Africa | -4.0% | -3.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| Estonia | Europe | 1.8% | 2.1% | 8.1% | 11.7% |
| Eswatini | Sub-Saharan Africa | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| Ethiopia | Sub-Saharan Africa | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% |
| Fiji | Oceania | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% |
| Finland | Europe | 0.9% | 1.3% | 10.9% | 19.1% |
| France | Europe | 1.2% | 1.5% | 10.7% | 20.1% |
| Gabon | Sub-Saharan Africa | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% |
| Gambia | Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| Georgia | Eurasia | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% |
| Germany | Europe | 0.8% | 1.2% | 11.2% | 21.0% |
| Ghana | Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% |
| Greece | Europe | 1.7% | 1.9% | 5.4% | 7.8% |
| Guatemala | Latin America | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| Guinea | Sub-Saharan Africa | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% |
| Guyana | Latin America | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% |
| Haiti | Caribbean | -1.1% | -1.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Honduras | Latin America | 3.4% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% |
| Hong Kong | East Asia | 1.3% | 1.5% | 6.8% | 11.2% |
| Hungary | Europe | 2.5% | 2.8% | 8.7% | 13.5% |
| Iceland | Europe | 2.8% | 3.2% | 10.7% | 15.3% |
| India | South Asia | 5.9% | 6.2% | 11.8% | 17.9% |
| Indonesia | Southeast Asia | 4.2% | 4.5% | 10.1% | 14.6% |
| Iraq | MENA | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% |
| Ireland | Europe | 4.3% | 4.7% | 12.8% | 20.9% |
| Israel | MENA | 3.6% | 3.9% | 10.3% | 15.4% |
| Italy | Europe | 1.1% | 1.4% | 8.7% | 16.6% |
| Jamaica | Caribbean | 1.6% | 1.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% |
| Japan | East Asia | 0.5% | 0.9% | 11.3% | 21.9% |
| Jordan | MENA | 2.2% | 2.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% |
| Kazakhstan | Eurasia | 3.5% | 3.7% | 7.7% | 10.7% |
| Kenya | Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.6% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% |
| Kosovo | Europe | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% |
| Kuwait | MENA | 0.6% | 0.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% |
| Kyrgyzstan | Eurasia | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% |
| Laos | Southeast Asia | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% |
| Latvia | Europe | 1.7% | 1.9% | 6.8% | 9.5% |
| Lesotho | Sub-Saharan Africa | 0.3% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| Liberia | Sub-Saharan Africa | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| Lithuania | Europe | 3.2% | 3.4% | 7.5% | 10.5% |
| Luxembourg | Europe | 1.7% | 2.0% | 8.7% | 11.2% |
| Macao | East Asia | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% |
| Madagascar | Sub-Saharan Africa | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| Malawi | Sub-Saharan Africa | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% |
| Malaysia | Southeast Asia | 4.0% | 4.4% | 12.3% | 18.4% |
| Maldives | South Asia | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% |
| Mali | Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% |
| Malta | Europe | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% |
| Mauritania | Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% |
| Mauritius | Sub-Saharan Africa | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| Mexico | Latin America | 1.2% | 1.4% | 7.6% | 11.7% |
| Moldova | Europe | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% |
| Mongolia | East Asia | 4.2% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% |
| Montenegro | Europe | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% |
| Morocco | MENA | 2.6% | 3.0% | 10.4% | 14.7% |
| Mozambique | Sub-Saharan Africa | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| Myanmar | Southeast Asia | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% |
| Namibia | Sub-Saharan Africa | 1.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% |
| Nepal | South Asia | 4.2% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Netherlands | Europe | 1.9% | 2.3% | 11.5% | 19.4% |
| New Zealand | Oceania | 2.2% | 2.6% | 12.3% | 19.1% |
| Nicaragua | Latin America | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% |
| Niger | Sub-Saharan Africa | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| Nigeria | Sub-Saharan Africa | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% |
| North Macedonia | Europe | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Norway | Europe | 1.6% | 2.0% | 11.2% | 18.7% |
| Oman | MENA | 1.8% | 2.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% |
| Pakistan | South Asia | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% |
| Panama | Latin America | 4.1% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 10.2% |
| Papua New Guinea | Oceania | 2.9% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% |
| Paraguay | Latin America | 3.2% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% |
| Peru | Latin America | 2.5% | 2.8% | 8.9% | 11.8% |
| Philippines | Southeast Asia | 4.6% | 4.9% | 10.4% | 13.7% |
| Poland | Europe | 3.6% | 3.9% | 10.0% | 16.2% |
| Portugal | Europe | 2.3% | 2.6% | 8.0% | 13.0% |
| Qatar | MENA | 1.3% | 1.6% | 8.6% | 14.3% |
| Republic of Congo | Sub-Saharan Africa | -1.2% | -1.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% |
| Romania | Europe | 3.0% | 3.3% | 8.8% | 14.7% |
| Russia | Eurasia | 1.9% | 2.1% | 7.0% | 10.6% |
| Rwanda | Sub-Saharan Africa | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% |
| Saudi Arabia | MENA | 3.0% | 3.3% | 10.1% | 16.2% |
| Senegal | Sub-Saharan Africa | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% |
| Serbia | Europe | 3.4% | 3.6% | 7.1% | 9.7% |
| Sierra Leone | Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| Singapore | Southeast Asia | 3.5% | 3.9% | 12.2% | 20.9% |
| Slovakia | Europe | 2.0% | 2.2% | 7.4% | 10.6% |
| Slovenia | Europe | 2.8% | 3.0% | 7.4% | 10.2% |
| Solomon Islands | Oceania | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| South Africa | Sub-Saharan Africa | 0.7% | 0.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% |
| South Korea | East Asia | 2.3% | 2.7% | 12.1% | 22.2% |
| Spain | Europe | 2.1% | 2.4% | 9.5% | 16.7% |
| Sri Lanka | South Asia | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% |
| Suriname | Latin America | -0.7% | -0.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% |
| Sweden | Europe | 1.5% | 1.9% | 11.6% | 19.9% |
| Switzerland | Europe | 1.9% | 2.3% | 11.3% | 20.0% |
| Taiwan | East Asia | 4.0% | 4.3% | 10.6% | 17.7% |
| Tajikistan | Eurasia | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 4.4% |
| Tanzania | Sub-Saharan Africa | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% |
| Thailand | Southeast Asia | 2.0% | 2.2% | 7.8% | 12.5% |
| Timor-Leste | Southeast Asia | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| Togo | Sub-Saharan Africa | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% |
| Trinidad & Tobago | Caribbean | -1.8% | -1.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% |
| Tunisia | MENA | 1.0% | 1.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% |
| Turkey | MENA | 4.7% | 5.0% | 10.7% | 15.5% |
| Uganda | Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% |
| Ukraine | Europe | -0.7% | -0.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| United Arab Emirates | MENA | 2.1% | 2.5% | 10.9% | 18.1% |
| United Kingdom | Europe | 1.4% | 1.8% | 12.8% | 21.5% |
| United States | North America | 2.4% | 2.9% | 14.9% | 29.9% |
| Uruguay | Latin America | 1.3% | 1.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% |
| Uzbekistan | Eurasia | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% |
| Vietnam | Southeast Asia | 6.2% | 6.5% | 10.8% | 14.4% |
| Zambia | Sub-Saharan Africa | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Zimbabwe | Sub-Saharan Africa | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
The idea
Intelligence is only one input
The Industrial Revolution made some countries forty times richer while others stayed behind for a century. I built the atlas to think through how a second change in how economies grow could play out if artificial general intelligence, AI able to do any job done at a computer, arrives within the next fifteen years.
AI supplies intelligence. Fast growth also needs electricity, chips, capital, people who can build and permission to build. The input that grows most slowly holds a country back, and the scarce inputs capture more of the gains. So the atlas tests whether power, capital and the capacity to build matter more for a country’s prospects than where frontier AI is developed.
Three scenarios
Three views of AI, and no probabilities
Economists disagree about how large AI’s economic effects will be. The atlas represents that disagreement as three scenarios and puts no probability on any of them. Which one we are in is an empirical question, and the atlas tracks the signals that would tell them apart.
Gradual
the AI insiders’ central estimates 15%growth a year at most, once AGI arrives around 2040Broad automation of remote work arrives slowly, with gains building from 2025. The best-placed countries grow about seven times faster than today’s frontier, and the long run-up gives everyone time to adapt.
Fast
the AI 2027 & Situational Awareness view 30%growth a year at most, once AGI arrives around 2030Transformation comes before countries can adjust, so whatever they already have in compute, capital and construction decides their position. Some countries grow more slowly than they would have without AGI.
What the model shows
Speed decides who gains
In the model, how fast AGI arrives matters as much as how far it goes. A slow arrival gives countries time to build what AI needs and to adapt. A fast one rewards what a country already has, and it can leave a fast-growing but poorly prepared economy below the path it was on: the ladder of export-led growth is kicked away before the country has climbed it.
16countries grow more slowly under Fast than without AGI, 13 of them in sub-Saharan Africa
3.6× → 5.5×how much faster the country at the 90th percentile grows than the one at the 10th, under Gradual and then Fast
5.2% → 4.7%average modelled growth across sub-Saharan Africa’s 40 countries, Gradual and then Fast: the only region where faster AGI means slower growth
Figure 2
The faster AGI arrives, the further countries spread apart
Sub-Saharan Africa (40 countries) Rest of the world (117)
One country at a time
What it says about your country
The atlas is built for people who work on one country: its government, and those who advise and fund it. Every country goes through the same four steps, from public data to a growth path. Choose a country and a scenario to follow them.
Figure 3
From public data to a growth path: Kenya
01
Score nine inputs
Compute1.7
Geopolitics3.5
Diffusion2.6
Language2.0
Build speed2.8
Catch-up4.5
Demography3.9
Cyber3.0
Climate1.5
Kenya is strongest on catch-up and weakest on climate and compute.
02
Weight them into an index
A weighted average of the nine scores gives an index from 0 to 100: rank 58 of 157 under Gradual. The weights change with the scenario; a fast takeoff counts compute and construction for more.
03
Place it in the scenario’s range
8.6% a year from 2040
The scenario sets the growth on offer, from the country’s own trend up to 15% a year for the best placed; the index decides where it lands. Own trend: 4.6% a year.
04
Trace income to 2060
GDP per person reaches $6,000 by 2045, against $4,200 on its own trend (2025 dollars; the dashed line has no AI).
Before the numbers
How to read it
- Scenarios, not forecasts. The atlas is a way to think across possible futures. It assigns no probability to any of them.
- The growth rates are ceilings. Each is what a country could reach with its current strengths if AGI arrives at the scenario’s pace and its government pursues deployment consistently. Getting there depends as much on political economy as on policy: whether those who lose from deployment can block it, and whether the country keeps enough of the gains to compensate them. The model measures neither.
- A managed transition. Every projection assumes that loss of control and extreme concentration of power do not happen. The atlas links to readings on those risks.
- Compare paths, not end points. Read the timing and the divergence between countries rather than the 2060 levels.
For governments
What it suggests for your country
Beyond the four steps, every country has a profile and a three-page brief (Kenya’s, for example), and 113 have an experimental sector outlook: which of their exports could grow, who buys them, and what it could cost to invest. The policy editor shows how stronger fundamentals would raise a country’s ceiling.
If your government is interested in exploring what the atlas suggests for your country, please reach out. I would love to talk, and to help you prepare and position your country to capture the opportunities AI offers it in particular, and to guard against the risks AI may pose for it.
About the project
Built in the open, and still changing
The atlas is the core of my current work, alongside my fellowship at the Africa Jobs Fund. I have built it with Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, since the first version, published in November 2025; the second followed in July 2026 and the third in September 2026. Its scores, sources and model keep being updated, and corrections are welcome.
The figures on this page are calculated from the atlas’s model with its default settings, as of version 3 (September 2026); agigrowth.org always has the current numbers. Growth rates are each scenario’s post-AGI rate; for Modest, its peak in 2035. Regional averages are of countries, not weighted by population or GDP.